Enrollment Declines Haunt School Districts that Stayed Remote Longer, Enforced Masking
Categories: US Education News
Public school enrollment dropped more sharply in school districts that remained remote longer compared to those that reopened for in-person learning sooner, a new analysis finds, as well as in districts that adopted heavy masking policies and those in counties that supported President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump.While enrollment in the country’s K-12 public schools has declined nationally – dropping roughly 3% during the 2020-21 school year, according to the National Center for Education Statistics – it’s rebounding in districts that reopened for in-person learning faster and continuing to decline in those that did not, according to researchers at the American Enterprise Institute, which collected and analyzed enrollment data published to more than 12,000 school district websites. Districts that stayed remote the longest experienced a two-year enrollment decline of roughly 4.4%, losing around 1 out of every 22 students, while districts that reopened sooner rebounded, losing around 1 out of every 93 students.Researchers also analyzed enrollment data based on school districts with high mask usage versus districts with low mask usage and found a similar pattern: During the 2020-21 school year, both types of districts experienced enrollment declines. Districts with high mask usage shed about 2.9% of students, and districts with low mask usage shed about 2.4% of students. But during the 2021-22 school year, enrollment in districts with low mask usage rebounded to a 1.9% enrollment decline, while enrollment at districts with high mask usage continued to decline to 3.4%. The pattern also holds when assessing enrollment data for districts in counties that supported former President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election.Moreover, polling done over the course of the last year shows time and time again that most families supported the decisions their school district leaders made regarding reopening for in-person learning or remaining remote.Malkus is less certain that debates over masking will headline debates during the midterm elections, but concrete data like enrollment drops and academic achievement gaps in districts that stayed remorse the longest are sure to be front and center – especially if predictions of a late summer surge by public health experts come to fruition.“If this surge rises again and masks come back in some places, or if we see again like we did in the last two years, an August surge and schools close,” says Malkus. “If that happens this September, oh my goodness. It's just going to supercharge this thing.”